SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage to Crash Into the Moon on August 5
Original: SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Rocket Is About to Crash Into the Moon—and It Could Be Visible From Earth
Why This Matters
First-ever potential observation of a human-made impact plume on the Moon's sunlit face marks a milestone in lunar science.
A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to impact the Moon's sunlit western limb near Einstein crater at approximately 6:34 am UTC on August 5, 2026, traveling at over 5,400 mph. The 3,900 kg rocket stage may kick up a debris plume visible from Earth via telescope—a first if confirmed.
A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage, left over from a January 2025 mission that delivered two lunar landers, is forecast to strike the Moon on August 5, 2026 at around 6:34 am UTC. The impact site is near Einstein crater on the Moon's sunlit western limb, with the stage traveling at more than 5,400 mph.
Unlike solid meteorites, the hollow rocket stage—weighing approximately 3,900 kilograms—is expected to collapse inward on impact rather than burrow into the surface. Physics simulations led by William Jo, a doctoral candidate at the University of Texas at Austin, predict the crash could displace around 12,700 kilograms of debris, generating a broad debris curtain spreading up to 183 kilometers wide and a narrow, near-vertical spike of material.
Aerospace engineering professor David Goldstein, who supervised the research posted July 27 to arXiv, described the model as 'most optimistic in terms of generating sprays,' noting the simulation assumes a straight-down, engine-first impact. A glancing angle—more likely in reality—would produce a smaller, dimmer plume.
Astronomer Laurence Trafton at UT Austin noted that a 50-kilometer plume would span roughly 28 arcseconds and could be 'easily resolved by a small telescope.' However, the plume may be 30 to 300 times fainter than the illuminated lunar surface, making contrast a significant observational challenge. No impact flash has ever been recorded on the sunlit face of the Moon.