US Gov Ran 3 Secret Polymarket Probes: Biden, Iran, Google
Original: The US Government Launched 3 Previously Unreported Investigations of Polymarket Trades
Why This Matters
Polymarket's regulatory exposure is widening precisely as prediction markets gain mainstream legitimacy and volume.
WIRED obtained CFTC documents via FOIA showing three undisclosed investigations into Polymarket trades: Biden pardon markets (May), Iran event contracts (late May), and Google 'Year in Search' insider trading (July). A parallel SDNY probe on the Google case is also underway.
WIRED obtained CFTC voting records through a FOIA request revealing three previously unreported government investigations into trading on prediction market Polymarket. CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved the first probe in early May, targeting potential insider trading on Biden pardon-related contracts. The order followed an NPR report on a trader who made over $300,000 correctly predicting preemptive pardons for Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Adam Schiff. A second probe, approved in late May, targeted Iran event contracts — two weeks after a 60 Minutes report on a network of suspicious accounts that made $2.4 million on Iran trades with a 98% win rate. In July, Selig approved a third investigation focused on Google-themed contracts tied to the 'Year in Search' rankings. CFTC acting enforcement director Paul Hayeck confirmed this probe targets individuals beyond Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer already facing SDNY insider trading charges, with the two investigations running in parallel. Former CFTC chief trial attorney Joseph Konizeski warned that if all three investigations were triggered only by press reports, it signals 'a significant sign of weakness in this regulatory scheme.' Neither Google nor SDNY commented.