Polymarket Users Bet $1.2M on LA Wildfire Outcomes
Original: Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
Why This Matters
Prediction markets expanding into natural disasters raises new ethical, legal, and public safety concerns.
During the January 2025 LA wildfires that destroyed 16,000+ structures and killed 31 people, Polymarket users wagered $1.2 million on nearly 20 fire-related questions. Survivors called the practice 'morally reprehensible,' and experts warn it could incentivize arson.
As the Eaton and Palisades fires tore through Southern California in January 2025, Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market platform — listed nearly 20 wildfire-related betting questions created by its own markets team. Questions included how many acres fires would burn, whether they would reach Santa Monica, and when they would be contained. Users collectively wagered $1.2 million on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine.
Wildfire survivors responded with outrage. Sylvie Andrews, who lost a home she helped build in Altadena, called the betting 'morally reprehensible.' Susan Sherman, who lost her family's Pacific Palisades home — owned since 1963 — described it as 'crass and heartless.'
Beyond ethical concerns, fire experts and ethicists raised alarms about arson risk. Unlike hurricanes or floods, wildfires can be deliberately ignited by a single individual in minutes, creating a potential financial motive. The US Forest Service stated: 'Systems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson, and are not compatible with our mission.' As prediction markets expand into disaster events, the debate over appropriate boundaries intensifies heading into the 2026 wildfire season.