China's EV Boom Creates Massive Battery Recycling Crisis
Original: China’s EV Market Is Booming. There’s Just One Problem
Why This Matters
China's battery recycling model will set the global precedent as EV retirements accelerate worldwide.
China's EV sales surged from 1 million in 2018 to 16 million in 2025, generating 400,000 metric tons of battery waste in 2025. Projections show this rising to 22.39 million metric tons by 2040, while certified recyclers handle only 25% of retired batteries.
China, home to the world's largest EV market, is now facing a large-scale battery disposal crisis as millions of vehicles bought during the early EV boom reach end-of-life. With lithium-ion batteries typically lasting about eight years, the country is entering its first major wave of retirements. Battery waste stood at 400,000 metric tons in 2025 and is projected to reach 1.69 million metric tons by 2030 and 22.39 million metric tons by 2040, according to a joint China-US research study.
China began building a formal recycling framework in 2018, certifying over 150 companies with a combined annual processing capacity of 623,000 metric tons by 2023—1.5 times that year's retirement volume. Yet certified firms processed only 25% of retired batteries. An investigation by Chinese financial outlet Yicai found more than 100 white-listed companies were unreachable or no longer operating.
The informal recycling sector fills the gap but poses serious risks. A 2024 case in Jiangxi Province found an uncertified operator had improperly dismantled 364 metric tons of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries, killing vegetation across 6 acres and destroying over 420 cubic feet of timber. Researchers have called China's effort to rein in the informal market a 'losing battle,' citing incidents of poisoning, explosion, and fire from improper dismantling.