Americans Trading $10.6-26.7B on Banned Polymarket Platform
Original: Americans Are Trading Billions of Dollars on Polymarket’s Banned Offshore Platform
Why This Matters
First major estimate of illegal US trading on offshore crypto prediction markets
Study finds Americans represent 30% of trading volume on crypto-based Polymarket despite 2022 US ban. Rutgers researcher estimates $10.6-26.7 billion in illegal US trades from May 2025-April 2026, with users bypassing restrictions via VPNs.
A Rutgers University study reveals Americans account for approximately 30% of trading volume on Polymarket's banned crypto platform, representing $10.6-26.7 billion in trades from May 2025 to April 2026. The prediction market was banned in the US in 2022 for operating as an unregistered derivatives platform. Researcher Harry Crane found US traders particularly active in sports markets, comprising roughly half of that vertical's activity. Users bypass geographic restrictions using VPNs despite terms of service prohibitions. Polymarket operates a separate licensed US app since December 2025, but its crypto platform remains far larger with $9 billion monthly volume versus $1.6 billion for the US version. The Coalition for Prediction Markets commissioned the study.